Bold assumptions.
Verified.

Healthcare systems spend billions quantifying frailty — a construct built on deficits and decline. Meanwhile, the WHO's intrinsic capacity framework, which measures what older adults can do rather than what they've lost, sits largely unused. This piece argues the choice of measure is not methodological preference — it is a value judgment with real resource allocation consequences. I demonstrate divergent model behaviour using longitudinal data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

A $120k capital decision on a grain and cattle farm with a 25-year horizon. Traditional payback analysis obscured what mattered: downside protection in an uncertain energy landscape, optionality, and operational resilience. A framework built on risk quantification rather than return speculation led to a confident decision. This case study is about what happens when the standard assumption — that ROI is the right lens — is the first thing you surface and discard.